Oil Supply Crisis Or Comeback?
In terms of the current crude market, most analysts estimate that if U.S. sanctions were restored, Iran would reduce its oil production by 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day.
However, given the U.S's ongoing efforts to get as many countries as possible to stop importing Iranian oil, some analysts even expect the figure to be closer to 1m barrels a day than 500,000.
According to Helima Croft, managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, U.S. sanctions on Iran are "" incredible," "and more than 1 million barrels of Iranian oil are expected to be withdrawn from the crude oil market each day.
However, croft said the current question about Iran's oil supply is whether trump can get countries other than China to disavow U.S. sanctions on Iran because China has made clear it will not recognize U.S. sanctions on Iran.
The us has been unable to persuade China, Iran's largest oil consumer, to reduce its oil purchases, but Beijing has reportedly said it will continue to increase its oil imports from Iran, according to media reports.
Finally, croft warned that the us could pull Europe out of Iran's oil market, and that India - Iran's second-largest oil consumer after China - would likely reduce Iranian oil purchases even if it did not pull out altogether.