The Recent Rally In International Oil Prices Has Raised Expectations.
Despite worries caused by us crude production is still serious, and rising dollar also makes the oil prices stalled, but this week the international oil prices continued to continue "sing", cloth oil briefly breached $80 mark on Thursday, six weeks even higher.Barclays, the investment bank, has been bullish on oil prices and raised its forecast for two big crude oil prices in light of the recent spike in oil prices.
Barclays raised its forecast for brent to $70 a barrel in 2018 from an estimated $63 a barrel in April.Forecasts for 2019 rise from $60 per barrel to $65 per barrel;The price of WTI crude is expected to rise to $65 per barrel in 2018, from 2019 to $59 a barrel.
However, barclays also said it would continue to believe that oil prices would fall by the end of 2019, excluding long-term disruptions.In addition, us policy will have a significant impact on oil prices in the coming months, with potentially stronger effects than expected.And in the next six to 12 months, OPEC's production cuts, U.S. sanctions against Iran and the international community's response to it are major factors affecting oil prices.
For OPEC and non-opec oil production, barclays said, assuming that Saudi Arabia output is about 10.2 million barrels a day, OPEC is expected this year to 32.1 million barrels a day, or growth in 2019 to 32.3 million barrels a day;Non-opec production is expected to increase by 1.9m b/d this year, with an increase of 1.5m b/d next year. Higher oil prices could push up production in Asia and Mexico.Venezuela's output will drop below 1m b/d from June, and Iran's output will fall to 3.5m b/d in the fourth quarter of 2019