While budget pressures have led OPEC to ease its tightening policy, supply problems in Iran and venezuela have created new upward pressure.
Crude oil may rise above 80, where demand often falls.
OPEC's goal is to keep the price of oil at its best -- to maximise revenues while maintaining demand.
In a more complex situation in the Middle East, there could be a damaging rally in the short term, followed by a fall in stocks and a subsequent fall in crude oil.
Judging from the market's response to supply disruptions in the Middle East over the past two decades, the short-term impact is clear.
Excluding the Middle East, us shale oil production continues to climb, potentially depressing prices.
Crude oil is expected to be less volatile and lower as it enters next year, but there will be no change in the short term in the volatility and rally.